Pulwama An Equilibrium Of Deterrence That Fell Apart

The February 14 Pulwama blast has turned out to be truly a defining moment in relations between India and Pakistan in more ways than one. The perspective canvas of the coming Indian elections for which this entire stage was seemingly set fades into relative insignificance compared to the momentous events that unfolded subsequently. We will discuss that later, at present let’s see how the effects exploded on both side of the border and how the winds blew them into global skies.

The Pulwama incident has been revealing in multiple ways. It uncovered many who had been stuttering around as Pakistan’s well wishers and soothsayers. It also blew apart the myth of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) standing up for the Islamic causes and Muslim countries. It may be of interest to know that UAE was not the first country to invite Indian External Affairs Minister to the OIC meeting this time. Many of the poorer Muslim countries are actually beholden to Indian investments and in some case outright largesse. But those who are affluent like the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (KSA) too show softer leanings towards India. It goes to prove that the concept of the Ummah is at best ethereal, and countries are moved by their national interests and not an abstract ideology.

One recollects when KSA was the OIC chair a few years ago, it almost granted India an observer status but was averted in time because fortunately our resident representative, a motivated junior Foreign Service officer played a key role. We survived by the skin of our teeth then. This same OIC tails Pakistan so faithfully in various forums of the UN for leadership and guidance and depends heavily on our diplomatic skills and capital at the UN. Then what is it that distracts them in its own crucial meetings such that Pakistan had to boycott the session? Realistic introspection is in order here. Palestine, however is a maverick in this literally comatose organisation. The more Pakistan lobbies for them internationally, the more they tend to move closer to India. It is high time we seriously reviewed or unrewarding Palestine policy.

Pakistan’s sneak raid deflated India’s chest thumping bluster to size with a lightning strike by the PAF fighter jets over the LoC in a span of few minutes. It also firmly planted Turkey as our true friend. Turkey’s valiant stand with Pakistan in a potentially perilous situation was simply magnificent and came just in time when our nation was gearing up to face the expected Indian offensive all by itself. It lightened our weight and broadened our chest in the face of a rising storm. Pakistan cannot be thankful enough to President Erdogan for his bold leadership. It also made people wonder in a state of confused disbelief why China and Saudi Arabia didn’t play a bigger role.

Quite expectedly and not surprisingly it laid bare a well baked and habitual trait in the Indian media-political clique to create fake digital news and manufacture gains against Pakistan. This habit or strategy has been deeply embedded into their state policy and architecture of foreign affairs, misleading the world and their countrymen terribly and mostly tragically. This is the same clique which together has whipped up hysteria which has sadly translated into a widespread disgust against Indian Muslims who invariably become targets of undeserved violence and maltreatment in that country. Presently, Kashmiris are facing most of this wrath. Despite mounting provocations and free flowing slurs, Pakistan played its cards carefully and set up its reactions with cool headed calculation, finesse and precision. Pakistan’s engagement of IAF fighters is a handbook lesson in dogfighting and presence of mind with in a very narrow window of opportunity. It remains to be examined how and why the IAF was so blind to Pakistan radar detection in case it tried to cross the international border which they tried to do at three places before attempting it at Jabba. Why were they so careless to attempt again during day time and got a bloody nose when they were chased out a night before?

One plausible explanation could be the hypotheses of matching bluffs and past record of Pakistani reactions to similar Indian incursions. Admittedly when India downed Pakistan Navy’s Atlantis aircraft with a dozen or so Navy men on board over Sindh border, the government of Pakistan seemed to have completely capitulated. That incomprehensible precedence must have remained firmly stuck in India’s military memory.

Now the bluff part. Pakistani and Indian forces have been deployed literally eyeball to eyeball along the LoC since decades. They have been hurling abuse, bullets and bombs at each other and making exaggerated claims of losses inflicted for years. The flag ceremony at Wagah Check Post epitomises this kind of mutual bluster in a dramatic and ceremonial way to the amusement of the spectators. So, a stage had been set for years for theatrics, chest thumping and bravado; each one fully believing that the other does not really mean it. Meanwhile, sweets would be exchanged on festive occasions between the uniformed men and presents given. An atmosphere of surrealism was deliberately set up, unmindful of its woeful consequences. This whole thing came to a sudden end with creeping vulnerability of Modi in the forthcoming general elections in India. BJP was desperately looking for an excuse to dramatically raise the ante against Pakistan to capture the Hindu vote with their muscular nationalism. Pakistan had become the most convenient punching bag for winning elections in India. This vicious environment was ripe for a sudden and violent eruption should Pakistan provide an opportunity, and what better than an act of terrorism which would directly stick to Pakistan without a question internally or internationally. But for occasional declarations of facing and defeating any aggression against the country Pakistan was careful not to provide any chance to the adversary. India on the other hand kept threatening severe military punishment if Pakistan allowed its territory to be used for a terrorist strikes inside India. Pakistan knew very well that the talk was too tall for India. It follows that there was a nice equilibrium of bluff between the two countries, below which business as usual continued at Wagah and Muzaffarabad; Kartarpur Sahib added for good measure. On the diplomatic score, India had stepped up its economic aggression in forums like the FATF, which Pakistan was managing reasonably. Then Pulwama was made to occur at a seemingly opportune moment for India, which is what makes it look suspect from a timing and locale point of view. Crucial Indian elections are around the corner and Indian Occupied Kashmir has been perpetually in the news for popular protests and official brutality with implied Pakistani involvement.

India immediately blamed Pakistan for complicity and declared a punitive response will be given fanning muscular but jingoistic nationalism and pious indignation against Pakistan. That drew immediate response from Indian people and an ante Pakistan pitch was set up in election rallies. However the catch was to walk the talk but avoid full scale hostilities ,therefore Jabba raid. It appeared to partially call Pakistan’s bluff and shifted the onus of a retaliation to Pakistan. Going by the past history chances were remote, however, Pakistan called India’s bluff brilliantly and effectively which is history now.

There are certain residual effects and spin offs of this engagement which need to be kept in mind. India’s Jabba raid has catapulted such incidents from the soft realm of diplomatic condemnation to the hard battle field of unilateral military action across the international boundary albeit without international sanction. Imprudent but expedient US wink and nod acted as a tacit approval and has regrettably revived the specter of proxy nations and client states once again. Pompeo’s ill considered ‘counterterrorism action’ reference to India’s intrepid violation was a signal of approval and is a harbinger of how international affairs would be handled by the US in South Asia in future. That is a bad news for stability and peace in the region .Pakistan’s firm and hard hitting reaction shattered the trance quickly and soon US started to preach restraint on both sides. Indeed, a shoddy diplomatic performance.

A major fall out of the engagement is a military response in being from Pakistan. Indian incursion has firmly and finally provided Pakistan with a locus standi and justification to attack across the international border into India at the time and target of its own preference, should an occasion arise. Jabba raid has deprived India of any recourse to international forums , in such an eventuality. More dangerously Indian action has undermined the moral and legal authority of the UN Security Council whose permanent seat it is seeking so desperately. India’s cupboard is filled with skeletons, to engage which a formal declaration of hostilities now will not be necessary. Indo-US collusion over Jabba raid provides the precedence and the path.

(Published in Monthly Tribute International on 01-03-2019)