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Author: Asim Rasool
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is essential in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc. Energy is the most important sources for economic growth of a country. Unfortunately Pakistan has to face a major energy crisis in Natural gas, Power and Oil in next coming years. The high cost of the import of Oil, construction of gig dams, uncertain regional security environment attached with lack of national agreement to build dams are likely to delay quick resolution of energy crises. This energy shortfall will lead to inflation. Similarly subsidies of billions of rupees have to be doped out “Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)” to bear loses.
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown.
During 2010-13, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy decline of 0.64% and 3.09% respectively as compare to previous year. Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day but currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hit the economic growth of the country.
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, and coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7%, followed by oil 29.0%, electricity 15.3 %, coal 10.4% and LPG 1.5%.
If we see into the history and important by in the two recent decades, we will come to known that none of the government had taken serious steps to overcome this most important problems. Almost all of them had strived only for political power over their opposite rivals and to strengthen their regime. The result of this is being faced by the nation now.
One very important reason attributed to this energy shortage is the aging of the generating equipment which could not develop the electricity as per the design requirement. This is the responsibility of continuous updating the equipment and keeping the high standard of maintenance. We sincerely think a serious thought should be given for general repair and maintenance of existing equipment to keep them in good working order.
So far energy protection is limited to newspaper ads lip service in seminars. No serious thought is being given to utilize the energy at the optimum level. A new culture need to develop to save energy. Some times on government level illiteracy is blamed for the failure of the energy conservation program. This is not true, maximum energy is consumed by elite class which has all the resources of knowledge and communication. But for their own luxury they themselves ignore the problem. Government should seriously embark on energy conservation program.
The cost of crude oil has increased from 40 $ to 140 $/barrel. It means the generation from thermal units are costing very high price. WAPDA and KESC when purchasing electricity on higher cost are not willing to keep on selling the electricity on loss. Therefore they do not move on general complain of load shedding. One simple solution is to increase the energy cost. Again the theft of electricity from the consumers adding the depression of common citizen who wants to pay the bills honestly.
WAPDA and KESC are two generation units in Pakistan. Although NEPRA is a government authority to settle the tariff issues but the fact remains that once the question of WAPDA comes the authority has a very little influence. This is suggested that private sector should be allowed to install power plant and settle the electricity to consumers.
Pakistan is blessed with large amount of the coal. Again no serious work is done to explore the coal for power generation. This is complained that the coal quality is inferior. Government is looking for private sector to play its role. In our opinion the government itself should come forward and install the power plants on the site of coal mines only.
WAPDA briefing highlights the poor distribution system as the main cause of tripping and breaks down of the system. This is true that the distribution system causes many unwanted tripping and breaks down but now we honestly believe that the shortage of energy generation is our main cause of the problem for last twenty years WAPDA and KESC complaining about the distribution system but fails to bring any improvement.
As due to lack of production and corruption in the department, the circular debts are rising every day. Due to these circular debts the economy is paralyzing and the people are suffering adversely the governments is unable to pay the debts and as a reason most of the production units are working lower than their capability.
A very high percentage of energy is wasted during transportation and distribution. We are losing more energy as compared to the developed countries if Pakistan can overcome these losses, then about half of its shortfall may be overcome some people tend to steal the energy the energy with re without the help officials. It should be addressed properly.
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 per cent) and oil (29 per cent majority of which is imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
Energy is essential for running all other resources and crisis of energy directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is in a weak position by decline in agricultural productivity as well as by awkward in operations of industries. One important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed to shortfalls in energy supply.
Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units are gradually closing.
By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards unemployment.
This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking, heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people and results in agitation against the government.
Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Plants and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by the US. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar projects in 20 other cities.
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has the potential of more than 100,000 Mw from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Azad Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan. However, private vendors are importing panels/solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government is shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels.
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to push the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which create electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 Mw to 50000 Mw, yet power generation through wind is at the initial stages and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhimpir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhimpir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power programme, with 425 MW capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially. Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or material which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issue in development of nuclear energy are enhancement of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and removal of solid waste.
Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resources of energy in hydel power, only 34% of total electricity generation is coming from this power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 t0 45000 MW. Current hydropower stations are: Tarbella Dam: 3,478 MW; Ghazi Barotha: 1,450 MW; Mangla 1,000 MW; Warsak 240 MW and Chashma 184 MW. Potential hydropower stations are: Diamer-Basha Dam 4,500 Mw; Munda Dam-Swat River in Mohmand Agency 740 MW; Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW; Bunji Dam 5400MW and Dasu Dam 3800 MW.
Import of natural gas by Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) and Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) pipelines. Import of electricity from Tajikistan-through PAK-Afghan-Tajikistan transmission-and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) are better options to overcome energy crisis.
Water and energy are matters of life and death for us. We have to build all dams. We have lagged far behind and have to work at a fast pace to catch up with the rest of the world. We are facing an existing water shortage by 9 million-acre feet and by 2020 this short fall will be up to 20 maf. Constructing two to three dams is expected for us by the year 2020. By building mega water reservoirs our canals will become returning and no longer be seasonal. New reservoirs will generate 10000 mw of power, which would certainly bring down the rate of electricity.
The government has drawn up a 25-year plan (2013-2038) for increasing energy production in the country. That is needed to meet the demand for energy which is increasing by ten to twelve per cent annually. That is one of the major development plans. The energy development plan is accompanied by initial cost estimates which will be $37 billion to $40 billion.
To conclude, the industrial sector and energy are directly proportional/inter-dependent on each other. Without one sector the other is of no value. Therefore, to beat the time it is necessary that Pakistan’s both sectors be brought at the level required by the developed countries of the world. We have very experience of China and India having the world largest population is emerging as powerful countries in the world. The reason behind that they have come to know how policies be made and be implemented. Therefore, Pakistan needs to follow their way of emergence.
(Published in Monthly Tribute International on 01-08-2018)
